Making predictions for the year seems like a good beginning-of-the-year tradition, so I’m trying it out. My evaluation criterion for these predictions will be their Brier score, where I interpret the score roughly as follows:

• > 0.25: Bad (worse than predicting 50% for everything)
• 0.20-0.25: Okay
• 0.15-0.20: Good
• < 0.15: Excellent! (my expected score if all these predictions are perfectly calibrated is about 0.17)

COVID-19

• The new COVID strain causes a noticeable rise in cases in the US¹: 85%
• More than 3 million global COVID deaths: 75%
• More than 10 million global COVID deaths: 15%
• Giving only a single dose of one of the RNA vaccines is approved in the US: 30%
• I get COVID: 5%
• I get a vaccine by the end of April: 10%
  • …by the end of May: 30%
  • …by the end of June: 60%
  • …by the end of July: 70%
  • …by the end of the year: 95%

Economy

• No major stock market crash³: 60%
• My investments outperform the S&P 500: 80%
• Bitcoin reaches $100k at some point in the year: 20%

Personal

• I adopt or foster a cat or cats: 60%
• I travel to a country other than Canada: 30%
• I travel back to Canada at least twice: 80%
• I don’t switch jobs: 90%
• I return to in-person work: 85%
• I write at least three blog posts other than this one: 65%
• I make another predictions post at the start of 2022: 90%
• I go on at least three dates: 75%
• I go on at least three in-person dates: 60%
• I get a USHPA P2 rating: 65%
  • …and a P3 rating: 10%
• I get an amateur radio license: 60%
• I run 5km in less than 28 minutes⁴: 60%
  • …in less than 25 minutes: 25%
• I solve a Rubik’s cube in less than 10 seconds⁵: 60%
• [Redacted 1]: 60%
• [Redacted 2]: 40%
• [Redacted 3]: 20%
• [Redacted 4]: 5%

Meta

• My Brier score for these predictions is better than 0.25: 80%
  • …better than 0.20: 60%
  • …better than 0.15: 15%
• At least one of the questions in this section has self-referential issues⁶: 10%

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